Lurching from one controversy to another, PML-N has marked 100 days in power. To ensure accountability and public welfare, one must regularly review the outcomes of all regimes via a sound framework.
The one I use says that the quality of outcomes of a regime depends on the quality of its strategies which depend on the quality of its team. Outcomes occur in five domains (economic, political, social, security and external) and functions (legislation, policy, projects, services and institutional reform). This comprehensive framework allows systematic analysis while its cause and effect links give it strong predictive powers: if a set-up can’t present a quality team or sound strategies, its outcomes will be poor. In fact, by looking at the team, one can predict accurately even within months how it will do in five years.
Seeing its weak team, I has predicted soon in 2018 that the PTI won’t deliver. My later regular PTI reviews using this lens confirmed the accuracy of my initial prognosis. Unluckily, the same is now true for PML-N. No set-up can show major outcomes in just 100 days. But by then, it must at least present a compelling vision and policies and a competent team to implement them, especially given the huge crises we currently face. That this hasn’t happened in three months is cause for alarm. And if it doesn’t happen in six months, it may be cause to start writing its obituary predictively.
The cabinet, even in critical outcome areas like economy, interior, law, foreign affairs and social sectors, largely has inept persons, reflecting the demands of powerful forces like the establishment, various Noonie factions and allies. One struggles to find persons with serious expertise in the ministries assigned to them. The Finance Minister is the new kid on the block. But though better than Dar, he lacks the serious macro-economic, IMF and public finance credentials needed to deal with our huge economic crisis. Also, the Finance Minister largely deals with fiscal matters. To upgrade the economy, one needs competent persons in investment, commerce, IT and industry posts, which are largely filled with inept political appointees. The icing on the cake, the Prime Minister shows no ability to graduate beyond his federally irrelevant projects skills.
The team’s big gaps show in the lack of sound vision or strategy in all five domains and functions. Reflecting its lack of a sound economic vision, the recent budget does badly on key criteria such as cutting wasteful outlays and subsidies, identifying new and equitable sources of direct taxes, encouraging durable growth in productive sectors and exports and ensuring equity. It may deliver temporary stability and the IMF deal. But by perpetuating the root causes of our economic ills, it is laying the grounds for future economic crises.
Politically, we need civilian sway, political legitimacy and civil rights. PML-N lacks control over key federal areas like economy, defense, interior and foreign affairs, having meekly given them to the establishment. It has a rigged mandate, even more so than PTI’s. Under establishment’s push, it is taking harsh steps to curtail civil rights, like crackdown on media, twitter, opposition and dissidents, again even more so than PTI. One sees no legislative agenda to deal with our myriad constitutional and political challenges.
The security situation is precarious, with militant groups the main threat in KP and Balochistan and criminal gangs in Sindh and Punjab. Socially, extremism is rampant nationally, resulting in a horrendous situation for women, children and religious minorities. Yet, beyond empty stern warnings from both Pindi and Islamabad after every incident, one sees little vision or capacity to address the root causes of insecurity or extremism in any region.
Externally, ties with major powers like China, West and Gulf states have improved a bit, but without creating major opportunities that can help us economically. Both China and Gulf states seem reluctant to invest heavily in Pakistan given the regimen’s lack of vision and the failure to inspire confidence, as was true for PTI.
Unless PML-N infuses new able hands, there is little chance of it giving major positive outcomes in five years even if it lasts that long. So, as with PTI, the establishment’s new hybrid experiment may fail too. The 2008-18 era when it had withdrawn partially from politics had yielded some political evolution which may have eventually improved governance too if it had been allowed to flourish. But its post-2017 forays have wiped off all those gains and pushed us back by decades. Civilian sway and political legitimacy remain our only way forward and even that is a long route to progress. But the establishment shows no signs of accepting that.
The writer is a Political Economist with a Ph.D. From the University of California, Berkeley. murtazaniaz@yahoo.com; @NiazMurtaza2.
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