Samina Mustafa
M.Phil. Scholar
On Friday, November 17, 2023, a pivotal moment in Earth’s climatic narrative unfolded as the planet breached a critical threshold. The average air temperature near the surface of the Earth, on that day, surged to a staggering 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, marking a momentous departure from the climate that prevailed from 1850 to 1900—just before the onset of industrialization and the subsequent surge in carbon dioxide emissions.
This unprecedented temperature surge, initially reported by Samantha Burgess, the deputy director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, signifies an alarming departure from the historical norm. The two consecutive days of 2-degree Celsius temperature rise may only be the initial tremors, heralding the possibility of more such occurrences in the months ahead, especially with the El Niño showing no signs of waning from its peak season.
It’s crucial to interpret these two days not as a definitive breach of the 2-degree Celsius threshold warned of by climate experts for years, but rather as a glimpse into a potential future. The Paris Agreement’s aspiration to keep the planet “well below” this threshold hinges on long-term averages, requiring sustained periods of 2-degree-smashing temperatures. The unsettling truth is that these anomalous days are both a consequence of the unique conditions in 2023 and a result of decisions that could transform such anomalies into routine occurrences.
Friday and Saturday could be perceived as humanity’s initial ventures into an uncharted realm of temperatures previously deemed unthinkable—a proverbial breach of the ceiling. The increased concentration of greenhouse gases, acting like a carbon-choked blanket, has allowed enough radiant energy from the sun to be trapped, making such extreme temperature events plausible. The year 2023 has been rife with such forays into the unknown, with each month since June setting new temperature records, shattering even very recent historical benchmarks.
September of this year, for instance, surpassed the average July temperatures recorded from 2001 to 2010. The year as a whole is poised to become the hottest in recorded history, surpassing the previous record set in 2016. This alarming trend is not an isolated event; the past eight years have consecutively ranked as the hottest on record. This continuous escalation has become a disconcerting norm, pushing the boundaries of what was once considered extreme.
As climatic records continue to break with disconcerting regularity, the significance of each new record diminishes over time, succumbing to what sociologists term “Shifting Baseline Syndrome.” Gradually, these extreme events become woven into the fabric of our perception, blurring the lines between anomaly and norm.
The urgency of the situation is underscored by the forthcoming COP28 in Dubai, where nations will convene for United Nations climate negotiations. Carlo Buontempo, the director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, emphasizes the shockingly impactful nature of these recent breaches and underscores the need to comprehend their implications for our collective future. These temperature anomalies signal the dawn of a new baseline era—one where normalization becomes increasingly intolerable, and irregularities more challenging to dismiss.
In the current landscape, global emissions continue to rise annually, as highlighted by a recent UN report on the “emissions gap.” Even if nations fulfill their stated emission-reduction plans, the world remains on a trajectory towards nearly 3 degrees Celsius of global warming by 2100—an inhospitable scenario with profound consequences for life on Earth. The urgency of change is clear, as echoed by Inger Andersen, the UN Environment Program’s executive director, emphasizing the need for swifter action to avert a future outlined by the tumultuous events of this year. As the world gathers in Dubai, the negotiations become a critical juncture, potentially serving as a last chance to prevent the unsettling events of today from becoming the prologue to an even more challenging future.
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