Qamar Bashir
Former Press Secretary to the President
Former Press Minister to the Embassy of Pakistan to France
Former MD, SRBC, CEO, ATV
On the fateful day of October 7, 2023, Hamas launched an attack on Israel, killing many of its soldiers and civilians and taking as many as 250 Israeli and other nationals hostage, aiming to use them as leverage to prevent any Israeli retaliation. The attack enraged both Israelis and Americans, prompting a robust, comprehensive, and decisive military offensive with the ultimate objective of obliterating Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and neutralizing the perceived Iranian nuclear threat.
Following his address at the United Nations General Assembly, the Israeli Prime Minister ordered a targeted strike against Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah. In the attack, Nasrallah was martyred with several other high-ranking members of Hezbollah. The strike, executed with precision-guided US made bunker buster bombs obliterate Hezbollah’s headquarters and nearby structures, resulting in the death of multiple occupants.
This was the third high-profile killing since the start of the offensive after October 7. The first target was the Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, an ardent supporter of Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, who died under mysterious circumstances. According to conspiracy theories, Israel, with the assistance of the U.S., induced a fault in the electronic and communication systems of an aging helicopter. This malfunction caused the pilots to lose control, resulting in a violent crash in an uninhabitable and remote location.
The second high-profile killing was that of Ismail Haniyeh, who was attending a ceremony in Iran. He was asleep, believing himself to be safe under the watchful protection of the elite Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Neither Haniyeh nor the Iranians had any clue about the origin of the precision missile that struck, killing him in a state of total helplessness and vulnerability.
In addition, Israel has recently carried out a series of high-profile targeted killings like Ibrahim Qubaisi, Ibrahim Aqil, and Ahmed Wahbi, in strikes on the Lebanese capital. Fuad Shukr, Nasrallah’s right-hand man, and senior commanders Muhammed Nasser and Taleb Abdallah were killed in separate strikes in Lebanon. Among Hamas leaders, Mohammed Deif, a founder of the Qassam Brigades and mastermind of the October 7 attack on Israel, was killed in Gaza and Deputy Hamas chief Saleh al-Arouri was eliminated in Beirut. Additionally, Iranian Quds Force commanders Mohammad Reza Zahedi and his deputy, Mohammad Hadi Hajriahimi, were killed in an Israeli air strike in Damascus in April.
The formidable Israel, backed by the powerful USA, is unlikely to slow down its efforts until it has completely dismantled the leadership structures of Hamas, the Houthis, Hezbollah, and Iran and destruction of their military capabilities to prevent any future threat, whether big or small, against Israel. However, Israel’s most significant and challenging objective remains the neutralization of Iran’s military power.
Israel views Iran as its “enemy number one” due to several critical factors. Iran’s nuclear ambitions pose an existential threat to Israel, as the potential development of nuclear weapons could drastically shift the regional power balance. Additionally, Iran’s extensive financial and military support for anti-Israel militant groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad directly threatens Israel’s security, allowing these groups to attack Israel more effectively. Coupled with Iran’s ballistic missile program capable of reaching Israel and its leaders’ frequent calls for Israel’s destruction, these threats solidify Iran’s position as the top enemy.
Therefore, after neutralizing Hamas and Hezbollah, Israel’s next step would most likely be to implement short, medium, and long-term strategies and plans to neutralize Iranian threats once and for all.
In the short term, Israel is likely to intensify targeted strikes on Iranian military installations, nuclear facilities, and proxy forces in Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon to disrupt Iran’s influence and limit its ability to transfer weapons to its proxies. It may also escalate cyber warfare operations, such as sabotage attacks on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, similar to the Stuxnet virus incident. Additionally, Israel will increase intelligence-gathering efforts to identify and eliminate high-value targets within Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and affiliated militias to weaken Iran’s offensive capabilities swiftly.
In the medium term, Israel will focus on weakening Iran’s proxy networks by continuing military actions against Hezbollah in Lebanon, pro-Iranian militias in Syria and Iraq, and Hamas in Gaza.
Strengthening regional alliances with Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain will also be a priority, as these countries share concerns about Iran’s regional ambitions. Moreover, Israel will actively engage with the international community, particularly the US, to maintain or increase sanctions on Iran to cripple its economy and limit its military funding.
In the long term, Israel’s primary goal is to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons by maintaining diplomatic pressure, supporting economic sanctions, or potentially carrying out preemptive military strikes if Iran nears nuclear capability. Israel may also subtly support efforts that promote internal dissent or uprisings within Iran, aiming for regime change that could lead to a government less hostile towards Israel.
To safeguard its interests against potential Israeli aggression, Iran should adopt a comprehensive and immediate approach. It must act swiftly to provide the U.S. and Israel with clear and verifiable assurances that it has no aggressive intentions, demonstrating transparency and a willingness to engage in peaceful dialogue to avoid a rapid and intense military response from Israel.
Iran must act swiftly to protect its military capabilities, manpower, and industrial infrastructure, as it cannot match the combined military and economic strength of Israel and the USA. Although Iran possesses drone and ballistic missile capabilities, their limitations were revealed during a recent coordinated attack on Israel. Despite Iran’s efforts to overwhelm Israel’s defense systems, Israel’s advanced air defense systems, including the Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow interceptors, were rapidly activated, intercepting and destroying nearly all incoming threats before they could inflict significant damage.
Unfortunately, Iran lacks the advanced defensive capabilities of the USA and Israel, which could be devastating if a similar attack were launched against Iran. In this scenario, Iran’s most prudent strategy would be to take immediate and concrete steps to avert an imminent US-Israeli attack, thereby safeguarding its people, leadership, and economic and military assets.
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