Is Russia imploding from inside?

Is Russia imploding from inside?

By  Qamar Bashir

Former Press Secretary to the President

Former Press Minister to the Embassy of Pakistan to France

Former MD, SRBC

The Wagner Group, an armed to the teeth, quasi-military outfit created by Russia to accomplish illegal tasks that the regular army could not do due to the Geneva Convention, and was engaged in dirty work in Ukraine, Syria, Libya, and the Central African Republic, with a sudden change of heart, turned against its creator, and by pulling out from Ukraine, marched toward Russian City of Rostov and captured it today, June 24th. After taking Rostov, the group boasted that the city embraced them with open arms and joined them in the struggle against the injustice and anarchy inflicted on Russia by Putin’s government. The Wagner Group, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, has threatened to advance toward Moscow to challenge Putin, which analysts describe as a mutiny, coup attempt, and forerunner of civil war and an existential threat to Russia, never seen before. The Ukrainian government has described the coup attempt as an utter defeat of the Russian military and a sign of huge victory by Ukraine against the mighty bear.

Putin was visibly enraged in his hastily organized broadcast address in the early hours of Saturday, June 24, 2023, when he accused Wagner’s leader of ‘treason’ and vowed to ‘neutralize’ the revolt with all mighty Russian armed forces. He ordered Wagner group head Yevgeny Prigozhin to surrender, declaring that “the fate of our people is being decided,” accusing Wagner of “armed mutiny” to implode Russia from within and an insult to those fighting on the front.

Putin vented his rage and frustration after Prigozhin claimed in a series of videos posted on social media early Saturday that his forces had taken over the headquarters of the Southern Military District (SMD) in Rostov-on-Don and demanded that the defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, and Russia’s top general, Valery Gerasimov, come to the city 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) south of Moscow to witness their defeat.  Yevgeny Prigozhin while sitting between two renowned Russian generals, also announced that his men had also taken control of all military facilities in Voronezh, about 310 miles south of Moscow.

Earlier in response to the claims, the chief of Russia’s military intelligence agency, Gen Vladimir Aleksyyev, called Wagner’s decision a stab in the back of the country and the president, as well as a declaration of war against the Russian military. Meanwhile, the authorities announced a state of emergency and canceled all large-scale events and beefed up security in and around Moscow to reflect the gravity of the threat.

For most of us, the “Wagner group” is unknown, and many of us may have no idea about its size, command, purpose, or objective, but this group has posed an enormous threat to Russia’s very existence as Russia’s armed resources are deployed against Ukraine, and any possible threat within the country would be a nightmare for military strategists and planners to effectively counter any uprising, mutiny, or coup which may require Moscow to either pull back Russian troops from Ukraine and pit them against battle hardened Wagner group and its sympathizers which are increasing after every passing day, or re-strategize deployment of the military on two fronts one outside and the other inside the country. This would imply an unambiguous win for Ukraine and other countries that backed it up against Russia’s alleged unjustified aggression. This will cast doubt on the fate of Russia’s president and may result in massive upheavals on the political, military, and social fronts, giving the majority of Russians nightmares and a perfect reason to rejoice for Ukrainians and its western allies. In the worst-case scenario, Putin in his frustration, may decide to end the war with the use of weapons of mass destruction or with the deployment of nuclear weapons as a last resort.

Given that Putin, with his KGB track record, is not going to yield so easily, we can expect a lot of Russian blood spilled on Russian soil., but if the rate of desertion in the army increases and there is a popular uprising, then number of Putin’s rule are numbered to much relief to the Ukrainian and other countries in the region, as well as the entire Western Europe and Americans, which by now must have been putting their heads together to find out ways and means to support the Wagner Group to an extent that it remove Putin from power, followed by installing a friendly government in Moscow which would no more be a threat to their interest in the region.

The Wagner Group, a Russian private military organization, originally gained international prominence for its alleged involvement in several wars, including those in Ukraine, Syria, Libya, and the Central African Republic, where it allegedly offered military support to the Russian government. The group was formed and raised under the supervision of Russia’s President, and it was used to destabilize countries deemed to be threats to Russia’s interests. Russia used to achieve all of its nasty objectives with this organization that a normal army could not. The Wagner Group is comparable to private military contractors in the United States such as Academi (formerly Blackwater), Triple Canopy, and DynCorp International. These firms provide a number of services to the US government, including security, training, and logistics, and they are utilized to get around the norms and regulations that regulate the employment of the US military. Wagner Group, like Blackwater, is not bound by the same rules and regulations as the Russian military, giving it more leeway to operate in sensitive areas and protect Russian interests in foreign countries, including but not limited to gathering intelligence on foreign governments and militaries, training and equipping local militias, and conducting covert operations.

The Group is led and funded by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a former close associate of President Vladimir Putin who is now his fiercest adversary, and it commands over 50,000 fully equipped army, many of them are former Russian military personnel and a sizable number of foreign fighters, including South Africans, Serbians, and Americans. The group has tremendous military resources and a diverse arsenal of weapons, including tanks, artillery, and air defense systems, as well as a fleet of helicopters and airplanes. It is also well-funded, with cash coming from both the Russian government and private individuals and corporations, allowing it to function autonomously in a number of countries throughout the world. Its troops, weapons, and money make it a powerful force, and it has played a pivotal role in a number of conflicts, including the mostly unlikely one, against its own creator, Mr. Putin.

Now that the same group that was formed to defend Russia’s interests has turned against its own creator, this is a significant development with potentially far-reaching consequences, especially since the entire Western world and Americans will throw all of their resources, military might, logistical and military hardware in its support.  The repercussions of the Wagner Group rebelling against the Russian government would be determined by a variety of factors, including the scale and severity of the rebellion, the Russian government’s response, and the actions of other countries. However, it is apparent that such a development would pose a significant security risk to Russia and the rest of the globe.

There could be several scenarios especially when almost 200,000 Russian forces are committed to war in Ukraine. One scenario could be that Trained in guerilla warfare, the Wagner Group may decide to split into a number of smaller, independent groups to make it more difficult for the Russian government to track and monitor the group, especially if the Russian population begins to support it in the aftermath of Putin’s oppressive policies. In the worst-case scenario, the Russian government may be overthrown, and the entire country may descend into a civil war aided by other countries.  The second scenario may be that the Russian government may triumph because its war machine is formidable, with 1.15 million active-duty and at least two million reserve personnel. The Russian military is now the world’s fifth-largest military force, comprising ground forces, the navy, aerospace forces, strategic rocket forces, and airborne forces. These forces were well-armed, with tanks, artillery, aircraft, and missiles, as well as a substantial quantity of dangerous nuclear weapons. The third scenario, especially in the absence of large-scale dissertations and public uprisings, could the annihilations of Wagner. The forth and the most dreadful scenario could be the use of nuclear weapons which if God forbid, materializes will inflict untold miseries to the people of the entire globe.

History has shown that war is never a solution to any problem. A government obsessed and drunk by its military strength may start a war, but in order to achieve their goals, they must contend with many known causes as well as numerous unknown factors, especially coming from some least expected sources, such as the Wagner group’s rebellion against Russia. Russia, like any other country, has once again understood that war is not an option for resolving disputes and conflicts. It simply leads to loss of life, property destruction, and economic disruption. It generates new adversaries and makes resolving future disputes amicably more difficult, resulting in long-term instability and insecurity. There are always other methods to settle problems than fighting. Negotiation and consultation allow the parties to reach a mutually acceptable solution that considers both parties’ interests. In the context of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, there were various possibilities for discussion and consultation. However, these chances were not taken advantage of, and the conflict escalated into war, disrupting the region that would take years to recover from. Parties to conflicts, such as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, must strive to resolve their differences through dialog and debate rather than war. This is the sole way to ensure that issues are resolved peacefully while also ensuring the region’s long-term security.