Wind is changed yet again…

By Daily Independent On Jun 6, 2023

By Qamar Bashir

Former Press Secretary to the President

Former Press Minister to the Embassy of Pakistan to France

Former MD, SRBC

The overwhelming reception of the Maryam Nawaz in Azad Jammu and Kashmir, love shown by the people for her, successful Public Meetings in many important parts of the country, subduing the judiciary, successful alignment with the establishment, breaking of PTI, weakening of Imran Khan, keeping the PDM together, keeping the government afloat, managing the public reaction despite killing inflation are the successes which can right be attributed to the grit, tenacity, resoluteness and consistency of Mayam and her pursuit to achieve set objectives without fear with outright courage, determination and steadfastness.

In one of my article dated 4th March, 2023 titled, “Again the lioness is roaring”, I encapsulated Maryam’s winning strategy against Imran in the following words, “Intriguingly, despite Imran Khan’s continued relevance, she outmaneuvered him through shrewd political management, depriving him of power from the center and, later, Punjab and KP provinces, leaving him vulnerable and exposed”.

Since penning of that article, the winning streaks of Maryam continued unabated and now while leading from the front, not relenting even for a moment, she have successfully broken down the PTI into many pieces, shattered Imran Khan from the core, turned his vocal and noisy popularity in mute mode, stopped blaring media from praise or supporting Imran Khan to a position where they don’t even dare to take him name in their programs and is now shower praise and helping the unified narrative of PDM and the establishment forward. This shifted the balance of highly viewed and effective talk shows, in the direction from where money flows in the form of doling out advertisements to the compliant channels.

She had also accomplished something that appeared unattainable only a few days ago. She successfully subdued the judiciary, the same judiciary that was about to initiate contempt of court proceedings against all those who were in any way involved in refusing to provide funds for holding Punjab Assembly elections, lost courage and did not dare to even talk about it, and 14th May, which was assumed to be the end game of the PDM, passed away just like any other day. We are now at the end of June with no sign of any proceeding or setting a date for contempt of court proceedings. On the contrary, the judges are deeply involved in trying to save their skin after the government formed a commission to investigate the allegation of involvement of none other than the chief justice and many other judges in the audio leaks allegations.

She also accomplished what had previously appeared to be impossible. She successfully and rightly molded her anti-establishment narrative and, riding on the 9th of May windfall, began showering praise on armed forces, martyred soldiers, and in favor of the sanctity and indispensability of respecting and revering military establishment. She labeled those who desecrated the last resting places of Martyred as militants and terrorists, as well as the party and its leaders who were allegedly masterminded, coordinated, and pre planned attacks and demanded banning the both.

Like all of her earlier narratives poured into the public discourse, which initially appeared difficult to accomplish, they were eventually accepted and executed. It is only a matter of time before this narrative gains traction, and the process of declaring the PTI as a fascist and terrorist party, and its leaders as terrorists and militants, will most likely begin in military courts rather than convention courts, to ensure its full and final implementation.

In another article Maryam’s winning Streaks penned on 10th May. 2023 basing upon my experience, I had outlined very close to her heart objectives, to imprison Imran Khan, as he had done to her father, to her, to his uncle Mr. Shahaz Sharif, and to the majority of the PML(N) leadership”. She achieved her objectives by imprisoning him on 4th May but released after 4 days, which led to the events of 9th May which proved a low hanging fruit for both Maryam and political factors. The event was blown up masterfully and successfully projected on all media, portraying the PDM and political factors on one side, and Imran on the other, thus successfully killing the two birds with one stone. Like all her other narratives, her narrative to ban Imran Khan and his party is gaining traction, and only time will witness the materialization of these objectives which seems not far away.

The narrative to ban the PTI and its leaders in the current scenario is likely to gain currency. If all factors are kept constant, the relevance of Imran Khan in the national discourse neither suits the constituent parties of the PDM nor the political factors. So far as plan A remained in play, especially when in this ever shrinking world, the political bent liking and disliking of Pakistani vocal and fearless diaspora has attained significant importance as they can turn nasty, unbearable, and unstoppable. This has added another power component to the country’s intricate power play. Both political parties and political factors must now consider the ambitions and sentiments of expats when making important political decisions; otherwise, they will have to face them anywhere in the world without the support of the country’s power bases, which have the potential to turn nasty at any time.

In another article, I outlined the possible follow-up strategy of the government in the aftermath of the 9th of May events, writing, “Imran Khan’s and his party’s future looks bleak, especially after his arrest.” The government would then arrest as many top PTI officials as possible in order to deprive workers of strategies and plans for organizing rallies and agitations. Brute state power will be used to quell any demonstration or resistance, and eventually fatigue will set in, business will resume normal operations, and the vulnerable courts and judges will sense the direction of the wind and will line up as in the past to render decisions deemed to be in the best interests of the country.” This will culminate in another victory laurel for Maryam Nawaz, bringing her one step closer to her goal of “equalizing both sides of the justice balance.”

In one of my previous writings, I stated, “She has indeed made an impressive progress in her efforts to bring Nawaz Sharif back to the country honorably and exonerated by enacting the Nawaz Sharif specific Supreme Court Practice and Procedure Bill, 2023.” This bill, once enacted, will allow Nawaz Sharif to appeal his conviction and receive a clean bill, allowing him to lead his party in the next general elections,” and had added that she would “simultaneously weaken the PTI and Supreme Court to the point where it would have no choice but to restore the impugned act and allow Nawaz Sharif to appeal and secure relief, allowing him to lead the party in the next general elections.” It appears that Maryam has tied and linked the conduct of general elections with the return of Nawaz Sharif, and hence the date of the poll will be altered, possibly even later than October if so required. Maryam’s success in the second penultimate target appears to be only a question of time.”

Maryam’s perseverance, intelligence, and political acumen enabled her to achieve what many thought was an unattainable goal. Even the President, who was elected by the PTI, couldn’t stand up to the pressure and signed the Supreme Court Practice and Procedure Bill, 2023, which is now an Act in all practical terms. It is simply a matter of time before the Supreme Court approves many of the Act’s relief-seeking provisions and strikes down a few that encroach on the independence or freedom of the court and restore the truncated but still effective Act to serve the purpose of Mayam Nawaz. But if she even gets a hint that the Supreme Court is considering knocking down the entire Act, the next day she will gather an even larger mob right up to the Supreme Court’s gates, forcing it to yield to the pressure as she had done very successfully to avert the contempt of court proceedings.

Now that the bill has been Enacted, the government’s next step would be to arrange a protective or pre-arrest bail for Nawaz Sharif, bring him back, and give him a rousing welcome, sending a clear signal to the judiciary and the PTI to align or remain silent spectators, and within a month or so, get a clean chit for Nawaz Sharif and announce the holding of a general election, with Nawaz Sharif projected as the Prime Minister for the fourth time and perhaps the last time, or, he may decide not to opt for this coveted slot, and instead project Maryam as the next candidate of the premiership. This would be her last objective in the current political scenario to accomplish until she sets out other objectives and achieves them one after the other.

Once the election date has been set, the PML(N) and PPP are likely to split since they both have their own strategies, vote banks, and unique plans of action to win as many seats as possible in the upcoming general election. The PPP will make every effort to attract as many electables as possible from the PTI, smaller parties, and independent but electable candidates, and the PML(N) will do the same. The PML(N) would support either Nawaz Sharif or Maryam Nawaz as prime minister, while the PPP will plan and utilize all of its resources to install Bilawal Bhutto, who is vying for the throne due to his outstanding performance as Foreign Minister.

This goes without saying, but one of the most essential aspects in Maryam’s ongoing winning streaks is the direction of the wind, which, while not organic, is blowing in her favor. Our country is distinct from Holland. Holland has the technology to centrally operate massive and powerful fans strategically placed throughout the country. All of these fans can be turned on and off centrally and moved in any direction at any time in rhythm with one another to either scare away clouds or wind where they are not needed or force them to specified regions to discharge their pressure or waterload. We lack cloud or wind control technology, but we do have effective and result-oriented centrally controlled political wind technology. The direction of this inorganic wind has shifted away from PTI and has been directed toward PDM. After shattering the PTI and Imran Khan, this inorganic wind will most likely be directed selectively and appropriately towards the PML(N) and the PPP, so that none of them achieve a clear majority and are forced to make compromises on the formation of the next government, leaving a fertile ground for future political maneuvering in the best national interest.