Pakistan at 2050″ study launched by UNFPA and Population Council presents challenges and suggestions related to overpopulation

13 November 2024

Islamabad: Minister Ahsan Iqbal was the chief guest at the launch of “Pakistan @ 2050” study by Population Council and UNFPA held today in Islamabad Club.

Commending the UNFPA and Population Fund for producing this study, he stated that the report provides a detailed analysis of the recent census results and it gives future direction along with the tools needed to solve forthcoming challenges related to growing population.

Citing his Vision 2010 which he presented in 1997, he said that he had prepared the vision after getting inspired from the vision of Malaysia and China. “Unfortunately, two years later martial law was imposed and Pakistan became dependent on foreign aid.” The path to progress got broken due to many hurdles, the minister said. “However it is a proud achievement for the country that Pakistan became the first country in South Asia to conduct a digital census.”

The Minister said that there is a major debate going on in India right now on conducting the digital census, a seemingly gigantic task.

“We carried out the census with the consensus of all the provinces”, Ahsan Iqbal said.

He further said that debating on the problems of growing population is necessary. It is also important to note that after the Eighteenth Amendment, powers were transferred to the provinces and the provinces have not yet devolved powers to local governments.

The entire province of Sindh cannot be run from Karachi and Punjab cannot be run from Lahore. Service delivery and key outcomes cannot be achieved without devolving authority to local governments. The minister stressed that devolution of powers to lower levels is essential to improve the governance system.

In the past, population growth was beneficial for developing countries, but now it has become a problem due to lack of resources. Talking about the percentage of employed women, the minister stated that in Pakistan, only 23 percent of women are employed, compared to 50 percent in developed countries. Family planning education and awareness must reach the smallest regions in Pakistan, he stated.

“Pakistan’s problems are bigger than any one leader or party. Stability and policy continuity in the country can remove the impediments to growth,” Ahsan Iqbal stated.

Pio Smith, Regional Director UNFPA; Muhammad Yahya, UN Resident Coordinator in Pakistan; Luay Shabaneh, Country Director UNFPA, and Zeba Sattar, Country Director Population Council were among the panelists and the event was further attended by
academia, government officials, diplomats, development partners, deans of universities and fellow authors. Dr. Azra, Provincial Health Minister from Sindh attended it online. The welcome remarks were given by Dr. Zeba Sattar who said that the aim of this study was to produce quality research on population and related issues.

Stating the scope of the study, she said that the study addresses demographic changes, future projections and development opportunities. The motto of Population Council, since 1992, has been ideas, evidence and impact, she highlighted. The Population Council works closely with government and other institutes to produce findings that carry policy impact.
Stressing on the fact that the 2023 Housing and Population census gave a shocking news which was that population growth had increased than the one recorded in previous census.
Citing figures about unplanned pregnanciee and abortions, she stated that there are 2 million unplanned births and 3.8 million abortions recorded as per data. Highlighting the need to reduce the gap between family planning demands and services, she said that Pakistan must take drastic policy measures to address the challenges noticed as a result of census.
Pakistan @2050 study provides a roadmap for what Pakistan must do, she stated. “Unlike 5-6 yrs ago, now we have no choice but to implement decisions of CCI vigorously.”

She also said that Pakistan @2050 report underscores the quality of our population. Contrary to popular myth that a Large population is advantageous, she asserted that large population will not be an asset unless labour force is educated, skilled, healthy and employed.

Addressing the audience, regional director UNFPA PIO Smith said that 66 percent of Pakistan’s population is under 30 years of age. “It is a huge demographic advantage because if we can equip this demographic with education and skills, it can become productive instead of becoming an economic burden.” He said that the report underscores which challenges are there if the population stays unequipped. “The decisions we make today will determine if this demographic will be a bonus or boon.”
He further said that youth and women represent two most powerful challenges. Stressing on the fact that women’s empowerment isn’t just a moral imperative but an economic need, he said that educating young girls is not just a moral responsibility. Opportunities are endless for women and youth if they are educated and skilled, he asserted.

UN humanitarian coordinator for Pakistan Muhammad Yahya stated in his address that the study shows interrelationship of population with other sectors. It busts myths in the long standing debate on population growth and economic outcomes. He said that the study shows charts that present thought provoking insights, such as, the rate of girls completing primary education is 10 percent below the rate of boys completing primary education. “Without investing in education, we cannot utilize the potential of the large demographic,” he stated.

Dr. Saima Bashir, one of the authors said that female education is one of the most influential factors affecting reproductive attitudes and behaviours.
She shared that education policy stimulus scenario assumes that Pakistan will achieve universal school enrollment by 2028.
With universal enrollment, proportion of individuals who never attended school will decline by 8 percent, she stressed.
“Once females enter the school system, they have higher probability of completing their education”, she stated.

Dr. Hamid Mukhtar, former economist at World Bank, said during his talk that fiscal impact of overpopulation is only one impact among many multifaceted indicators. He presented a few graphs which demonstrated that if Household size increases, three macro data related indicators get negatively impacted: national savings, investment, earners. Highlighting the dents recorded in resource allocation, he said that water and land availability is getting compromised with time. Addressing the productivity question of whether a huge population is good or bad, he stated that
productivity is dependent on the capital one accumulates.
“If every person produces more than he consumes, it’s an advantage otherwise it’s a liability.”

Explaining the key takeaway from the study, he said that most challenges stem from policy and institutional weaknesses. The vicious cycle between low savings, low investment, low productivity, and low economic growth, can be broken through economic and instructional reforms. It can also be broken by making population programs more effective, he stated.