Qamar Bashir
Former Press Secretary to the President
Former Press Minister to the Embassy of Pakistan to France
Former MD, SRBC, CEO, ATV
Though the U.S. President is from the Democratic Party, his party does not hold a majority in either the Senate or House of Representatives. In the Senate, Republicans have 49 seats, while Democrats hold 47 seats; however, four independents caucus with the Democrats, giving them a slim majority. In the House, Republicans control 220 seats, compared to 212 for Democrats, with three vacancies. Despite a thin pseudo majority in the Senate, passing legislation by democrates remains challenging due to tight margins and divisions within both parties. This makes control of both chambers critical for policy decisions into 2025.
This composition might change in the November 2024 U.S Senate elections where 34 seats are up for grabs, with 23 currently held by Democrats or Independents who caucus with them, making it a challenging cycle for the Democratic Party. Republicans need a net gain of two seats to regain control of the Senate, and they have a strong chance, with forecasts giving them a 67-71% probability of winning. Key vulnerabilities for Democrats include potential retirements or tough re-election battles in states like Michigan, West Virginia, and Montana, which lean Republican.
This cycle presents an uphill battle for Democrats, while Republicans aim to capitalize on these opportunities. If Donald Trump wins the 2024 election, he would likely have more legislative control due to the Republican presence in both the Senate and House, giving him more freedom to advance his policies. This would allow him to push for legislation that aligns with Republican core values: limited government, lower taxes, deregulation, and free-market capitalism. On social issues, Trump would likely advocate for traditional family values, religious freedom, pro-life policies, and gun rights, while maintaining a strong focus on national defense and assertive foreign policy.
If Kamala Harris wins the election, but the Senate and House remain tilted toward the Republican Party, she would likely face significant resistance in passing key legislation, making appointments, and pursuing her party’s agenda. Her goals, such as expanding healthcare, advancing climate action through the Green New Deal, and championing civil rights, LGBTQ+ rights, and women’s reproductive rights, would encounter opposition from Republicans. Efforts to reduce inequality through progressive taxation, social programs, and raising the minimum wage would also be difficult to achieve.
I am currently based in Macomb, Michigan, a swing state, where voter loyalties are shifting, particularly among immigrant populations. While Detroit, home to a large Arab community, is increasingly leaning toward Trump due to his non-interventionist stance in the Middle East, much of the white population remains strongly pro-Trump. However, this simplification doesn’t capture the fluid nature of voter preferences, which continue to evolve until election day.
It is becoming increasingly difficult for Kamala Harris to sell her policies promoting economic inclusivity, such as raising the minimum wage, expanding healthcare access, gun control, progressive taxation, and education reform, including free community college and student debt relief. On social issues, she struggled to sell her reproductive rights, pushing to codify Roe v. Wade (the landmark 1973 U.S. Supreme Court decision that legalized abortion nationwide), access to affordable healthcare and her support to Ukraine and favors diplomatic engagement in the Middle East..
Donald Trump’s campaign, on the other hand, revolves around deregulation, tax cuts, and his “America First” agenda, aiming to bring back manufacturing jobs and lower inflation by reducing foreign dependencies. He emphasizes law and order, strong border security, and minimal government intervention in healthcare. Trump supports state-level abortion restrictions and promotes school choice programs, advocating for charter schools and vouchers. His foreign policy focuses on reducing U.S. involvement in international conflicts, particularly in Ukraine, and strengthening ties with Israel through the Abraham Accords (a series of agreements brokered by the U.S. starting in 2020, normalizing diplomatic relations between Israel and several Arab nations), while adopting a tougher stance on Iran.
In U.S. elections, typical Republican “red” states, like Texas, Alabama, and Wyoming, traditionally support conservative candidates, focusing on issues like gun rights, lower taxes, and limited government, providing a solid base of electoral votes in the South and rural West. On the other hand, Democratic “blue” states, such as California, New York, and Illinois, tend to favor progressive policies, with a strong base in urban areas and coastal regions, focusing on healthcare, education, and environmental issues. The key to winning presidential elections often lies in swing states like Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia, which do not consistently favor either party and can shift based on candidates’ appeal and local issues. These battleground states are highly contested because their electoral votes can swing the balance in a tight race. Both parties rely on their traditional strongholds, but ultimately, securing a majority in the swing states is essential to reaching the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.
Recent surveys indicate that the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump for the 2024 U.S. presidential election remains tight, with Harris holding a slight edge in most national polls. For instance, an Ipsos poll shows Harris leading Trump 48% to 44% among likely voters. However, when undecided voters are pushed to make a choice, more lean toward Trump. Other polls, such as one from The Economist/YouGov, also place Harris ahead by about 4-5 points, but the margins are narrow, especially in key battleground states.
Harris is generally favored by voters who consume mainstream and digital media, while Trump finds strong support among conservative media audiences, particularly on issues like inflation and immigration. In contrast, Harris holds an advantage on political extremism. The impact of swing states, where many results are within the margin of error, could be crucial in determining the final outcome, making the race highly competitive.
The last presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump was held on September 10, 2024, hosted by ABC News. The next presidential debate is likely to be scheduled soon. This debate would play a crucial role in shaping public opinion, particularly among undecided voters, as this debate would highlight the candidates positions on critical issues like the economy, healthcare, foreign policy, and social justice. Till that time the American economy is freezed and the entire world is eagerly awaiting the assumption of power by the most powerful person on this planet.
Comments are closed.