By
Qamar Bashir
Former Press Secretary to the President
Former Press Minister to the Embassy of Pakistan to France
Former MD, SRBC
Mr. Imran Khan’s visit to Russia was monumental in many respects. His visit coincided when Russian in total defiance of the USA and the West invaded Ukraine to punish its unpardonable crime, to vie for membership of the NATO thus bringing the might of the US and the West right on the frontiers of Russia. This visit was seen by the USA as an aggression against the USA interests and pursuing the Russian line which later culminated in Cypher wherein allegedly the US while expressing its anger on the independent foreign policy pursued by imran Khan, asked the state of Pakistan thought ministry of foreign affairs to remove Imran Khan from power otherwise face the dire consequences. Imran Khan was eased out of the government and replaced with a much compliant regime.
Of course, there is no similarity between the visit o fImran Khan and the ongoing visit of the Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi to Russia (July 8-9, 2024). Unlike Imran Khan, USA will not dare to ask the Indian establishment to remove Nerendra Modi from power, as the punishment for visiting the USA’s arch rival Russia, instead his visit will be welcomed and termed as a great diplomatic achievement of India and a reflection of Statesmanship of Modi, compelled by New Delhi’s significant geopolitical role in the region.
Modi’s visit to Russia, where he was received with great pomp and show will have multifaceted impacts on Pakistan, influencing its strategic alliances, regional security dynamics, and economic interests, particularly concerning CPEC.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Russia has the potential to impact Pakistan in several significant ways, given the complex geopolitical dynamics involving India, Russia, Pakistan, and China. Here are the possible manners and ways this visit could affect Pakistan:
Modi’s visit underscores the enduring strategic partnership between India and Russia. Strengthening these ties could lead to closer military and economic cooperation, which might concern Pakistan given its own strategic interests and alliances. Enhanced Russia-India relations could potentially shift regional power dynamics and influence Pakistan’s strategic calculations
Pakistan has been seeking to build closer ties with Russia as part of its broader foreign policy to diversify its alliances beyond traditional partners like China and the U.S. Modi’s visit might prompt Russia to carefully balance its relations with both India and Pakistan, ensuring that its growing ties with India do not alienate Pakistan or India.
If Russia deepens its economic and military cooperation with India, it could limit the scope and depth of similar cooperation with Pakistan. This might affect Pakistan’s access to Russian military hardware and economic investments, especially if Russia prioritizes its strategic partnership with India.
Pakistan has accused India of attempting to derail the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) through various means, including supporting insurgencies in Balochistan and attacks on Chinese interests in Pakistan. Closer India-Russia ties could embolden India in its efforts to counter CPEC, which is a flagship project of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
The visit could also impact regional stability. If India and Russia align more closely on regional security issues, it might affect the security dynamics in South Asia, particularly concerning Afghanistan and the broader implications for counter-terrorism efforts.
China, as Pakistan’s closest ally, will be closely watching the developments from Modi’s visit. Any shifts in the Russia-India relationship could influence China’s strategic approach towards South Asia. If Russia and India strengthen their ties, China might reinforce its support for Pakistan to counterbalance India’s influence.
China’s BRI projects, including CPEC, are critical to its global strategy. Any perceived threats to these projects from India’s actions, potentially supported by stronger India-Russia relations, could prompt China to increase its economic and military support to Pakistan.
Modi’s visit might also influence Pakistan’s diplomatic strategies. Pakistan may intensify its efforts to highlight India’s alleged human rights violations in Kashmir and its involvement in terrorism in international forums. Additionally, Pakistan might seek to strengthen its alliances with other countries, including leveraging its relationships with China and potentially Russia, to counterbalance India’s diplomatic moves.
This visit may not only create additional challenges for Pakistan but may also create new opportunities therefore Pakistan should calibrate its foreign policy objectives, trade, investment, business and security strategies to effectively safeguard its interests and capitalize on new opportunities emerging from the current geopolitical landscape.
Pakistan can consider a multi-faceted approach. Strengthening strategic alliances with China and Russia should be a priority. Deepening the strategic partnership with China, particularly through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), remains crucial. Additionally, enhancing relations with Russia, despite Modi’s visit, can ensure that Pakistan continues to benefit from Russian defense and economic cooperation. Engaging in high-level diplomatic exchanges with both these major powers can solidify Pakistan’s position in the region.
Diversifying diplomatic engagements is another essential step. Strengthening ties with Central Asian countries can open new avenues for trade and energy cooperation, reducing economic dependency on any single country. Actively engaging with other major powers like Turkey, Iran, and the European Union can create a more balanced foreign policy, offering broader support. Participation in international forums such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) can help Pakistan build a broader base of international support.
Economically, Pakistan should focus on boosting diversification and promoting foreign direct investment (FDI). Enhancing trade with regional partners and improving the business environment can attract more investment. Expanding and securing CPEC projects by highlighting their economic benefits and regional integration aspects can attract additional investment from countries in Central Asia and the Middle East. Investing in infrastructure improvements to support trade and logistics will make Pakistan a more attractive regional trade hub.
In terms of security policy, enhancing counterterrorism cooperation through strengthened intelligence sharing with China and Russia is vital. Modernizing and training security forces can improve their capabilities in counterterrorism and counterinsurgency operations. Engaging in regional security dialogues and initiatives, such as the SCO, can help in addressing regional stability and combating terrorism. Addressing domestic insurgencies with comprehensive strategies that include development programs, political dialogue, and targeted security operations can dismantle insurgent networks, ensuring greater internal stability.
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